02.12.08
Democratic Nomination Rests with Ohio, Texas
The New York Times reported today that the Democratic nomination will probably be decided with the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4.
After Super Tuesday, Clinton had a slight lead in the race for the Democratic nomination. This past weekend, Obama won four states and eliminated that Clinton lead. Many analysts now think that if Obama can maintain that momentum – and win the primaries in Ohio and Texas – he will ultimately win the nomination.
A major reason for this is that unpledged delegates, also called “superdelegates,” may decide who wins the nomination. Many of these superdelegates are beginning to lose faith in Clinton, and some have suggested that they might switch their support from Clinton to Obama if the current trend continues.
Although Obama has lost momentum in earlier contests, I think this is a pretty good prediction. In fact, I think the odds are good that Obama could win Ohio. He has done well in other Mid-western states, like Kansas, Nebraska, and Indiana.
Texas is less clear. Obama hasn’t done as well in the deep south as he has in the midwest. Clinton has also attracted a much larger portion of Hispanic voters – who make up quite a large bit of the Texas population.
It should be an interesting day. If Obama can pull out a win in Ohio and stay competitive in Texas, he should be pretty confident of winning the eventual nomination.